The DECIPHER project has released a new policy brief titled “Innovating Climate–Economy Modelling: Dealing with Uncertainty, Risk and Complexity,” presenting five key advances in economic and environmental modelling to support more robust policy decisions under uncertainty and systemic risks.
The brief highlights how DECIPHER’s new generation of models integrates behavioural dynamics, financing costs, physical damages and the complex links between climate, biodiversity, and the economy. These innovations help policymakers assess resilience, feasibility, and long-term impacts across diverse future scenarios.
Key developments include:
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Emulation for Uncertainty Quantification using machine learning to explore policy robustness.
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Rational Expectations in CGE Models to capture forward-looking investment behaviour.
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Cost of Financing in Technology Diffusion reflecting how interest rates influence the energy transition.
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Flood and Coastal Damage Assessment linking physical risk models with macroeconomic impacts.
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Multiple Resilience Dividend Approach revealing the social and economic co-benefits of climate action.
đź“„ Read the full Policy Brief: Download PDF